This report was produced by NZCER for the COVID-19 Lessons Learned Royal Commission | Te Tira Ārai Urutā. It provides an evidence-based view of whether COVID-19–related school disruptions have affected student learning in Aotearoa New Zealand.
To do this, NZCER has analysed Progressive Achievement Test (PAT) data for mathematics and reading comprehension to estimate the effect of COVID‑19–era school closures on achievement in Aotearoa New Zealand. Auckland is compared with the rest of New Zealand using a difference‑in‑differences approach, estimated with linear mixed‑effects models, adjusting for year level, gender, ethnicity, and school socioeconomic context (Equity Index). Overall, we analysed more than 850,000 assessments across PAT: Mathematics and PAT: Reading Comprehension.
For PAT Mathematics, the analysis focuses on the trend data for 2019 to 2022, and for PAT Reading Comprehension, from 2019 to 2023.
He kitenga | Findings
New Zealand experienced learning impacts through the COVID-19 lockdowns, but they are modest by international standards and concentrate both where disruption was greatest (Auckland in 2021) and where socioeconomic barriers are higher.
Based on these findings, NZCER identified two key implications: there may still be a need for sustained and targeted mathematics catch‑up for high‑barrier Auckland schools and Māori and Pasifika learners; and broader, longer‑horizon work on reading that recognises pre‑COVID trends rather than attributing the pattern to school closures alone.
COVID-19 impacts on mathematics learning
PAT Mathematics scores declined in 2020 and again in 2021, then broadly returned toward long-term averages by 2022. Auckland experienced an additional decline in 2021, which was consistent with its longer closures. Most of that Auckland gap closes by 2022 in the aggregate, though higher‑barrier (higher EQI) Auckland schools and Māori and Pasifika learners carried more persistent effects. Girls and boys both show an Auckland-specific dip in comparison to baseline in 2021 that does not persist into 2022.
COVID-19 impacts on reading comprehension learning
The study found a slight multi‑year decline in Reading Comprehension. This decline is evident by 2020 (reflecting pre‑pandemic learning) and continues thereafter; Auckland’s COVID‑specific movement is small and temporary (a relative dip in 2021 that normalises subsequently). Achievement did not return to pre-pandemic baseline by 2023.
Patterns vary somewhat by group: NZ European and Māori track the mild national decline; North Asian learners improve; South & Southeast Asian and Pasifika remain near baseline. The national decline is slightly more pronounced for girls, while boys show a clearer Auckland-specific effect in 2021.