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This report brings together 15 years of Progressive Achievement Test data to examine changes in mathematics, reading comprehension, and reading vocabulary from 2012 to 2026.
What we looked at
The analysis covers just over 3 million Term 1 Progressive Achievement Tests records from 647,213 students in Years 4 to 8 and 1,306 English-medium state and state-integrated schools. It draws on assessments used in ordinary school practice, providing annual detail across a large group of students and schools. It looks at data from PAT: Mathematics and the refreshed PAT Pāngarau, PAT: Reading Comprehension and the refreshed PAT Pānui, and PAT: Reading Vocabulary.
He kitenga | Findings
The three subjects followed different paths. Evidence does not support a general story of either decline or recovery.
Mathematics was broadly stable through most of the 2010s, began to fall in 2019, and reached its lowest point in the legacy series (pre-refresh) in 2022. Most of that decline had been recovered by 2023. Scores rose again in 2025 and 2026 within the refreshed assessment series.
The 2026 Mathematics average was 1.64 PAT scale points above 2024, around one-third of the progress students typically make in a year. Much of the increase was already present at Year 4. The 2026 Year 4 average was 2.36 points above 2024, equivalent to almost half of typical annual progress.
Reading Comprehension scores began falling before COVID-19 and continued to fall through 2024, the final year of the legacy assessment. The adjusted 2024 average was 1.76 points below 2012, around one-quarter of typical annual progress. The refreshed assessment rose slightly from 2025 to 2026, but one year is not enough to establish a sustained change. Changes were also present by Year 4.
Reading Vocabulary improved overall. The adjusted 2026 average was 1.34 points above 2012, around one-fifth of typical annual progress. Students in the lower part of the score distribution shared less fully in this gain.
Differences between groups
Recent positive movement was seen across many year levels, regions, and ethnic groups, but large differences in achievement remained. In 2026, the adjusted spread between ethnic groups was about 11.7 PAT scale points in Mathematics, roughly 2 years of typical progress. School socioeconomic context was associated with differences of about 10 scale points across all three subjects, more than 1 year of typical progress in each assessment.
The difference between boys' and girls' scores also moved towards boys in all three subjects, although the pattern differed by subject. The report recommends further work to understand these changes.
Notes on interpreting the findings
- The PAT data were not collected as a nationally representative sample. The results describe achievement among the large population of students and schools using PAT and complement representative national monitoring such as Curriculum Insights.
- PAT Mathematics and PAT Reading Comprehension were refreshed during the period covered by the report. The earlier and refreshed versions are analysed as separate series. The report does not estimate change across the assessment changeover.
- Because the assessments were taken in Term 1, each year's results mainly reflect learning during the previous school year.
- The analysis shows when achievement changed, but it cannot identify the effect of any single policy or teaching approach. Attribution of changes to a single policy setting or teaching approach is speculative without further research.
About Progressive Achievement Tests (PATs)
PATs are standardised assessments for Years 3-10, independently developed by the NZ Council for Educational Research (NZCER) in the 1960s and maintained and refreshed by NZCER since. There are PATs for mathematics, rational number, reading comprehension, writing, reading vocabulary, listening comprehension, and punctuation & grammar.
PATs are one of the options for schools' required twice-yearly assessment, and are currently used by more than 1,500 schools in Aotearoa. Assessments are available in pen-and-paper and online formats, and are low-stakes tests designed to support teaching and learning.
More information, including FAQs for parents and whānau, are available here.